Tuesday, March 01, 2005

The Fourth Wave?

Samuel Huntington is a fairly famous American Political Scientist (famous at least among political scientists) for his book, "Clash of Civilizations" (based on a Foreign Affairs article found here) in which basically that there are 7 civilizations and these civilizations will come to a head, rather than the individual states (kind of, not really, read the article for the real exclamation).

But in another book by Huntington, entitled "The Third Wave," (Not to be confused with the Toffler book, and here's a review to get more of an idea on the Huntington book) Huntington (again, very basic explanation) argues that there have been three "waves" of democratization, or in other words, there have been three times in history in which democracies have taken root and spread. After each wave, there is also the wave going out, in which some of the infant democracies return to an authoritarian or some other type of government. There is some criticism by others on this theory, but for the sake of this short article I'll just act like most of his assumptions are true. You can find other views on the subject by following this Google Search.

So if the third wave was in the 70's-80's, do the recent events mean that we are now in a fourth wave? Do recent events in Afghanistan, Ukraine, Egypt, Palestine, Iraq, and Lebanon show a reemergence of democracy? Or they all examples of the American influence that may lead to a hope of democracy and an eventual crash back to dictatorships and theocracies? Will other powers (Russia and China for example) come to play more of a role in these democracies in the years that come? It seems that these cycles of changes in governments are coming faster and faster as time progresses, will this be a trend that continues until we get some type of standing wave that denotes who knows what? I don't really know, but it'd be a great hypothesis for some PhD student for I'm not even going to bother to do any research to back up this un-theory. And then they could pay me royalties for my already stolen ideas.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home